FOR THE YEMEN POST

Following President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s visit to Egypt and him meeting with Amr Soliman, Director of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service and in charge of the foreign policy files, the expectations had been forecast towards the return of the Egyptian mediation in Yemen’s southern crisis.
Media outlets drew on the names of Haider Al-Attas and Ali Nasser Mohammed as representatives of the southern side, while the Yemeni Authority is represented by Abd Rabo Mansour Hadi, Vice President of the Republic, who is expected to pay a visit to Cairo soon.
Sources expected that Cairo will host the meeting, which would bring the representatives together within days.
For its part, the Egyptian side is represented by Amr Suleiman; however, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit will participate in the negotiations.
Meanwhile, media outlets in Yemen have not mentioned the names of the members of the delegation accompanying the Yemeni vice president.
The success of this mediation is a direct threat to the positions of many southerners in power, especially advanced positions. What confirms these expectations is what has been reported by the Saudi Al-Madina Newspaper, which quoted an unnamed source as saying that the purpose of this mediation is to “involve a number of opposition political figures in the south, in the political arena”. 

Egypt and Saudi Arabia: points of interest
The Egyptian government’s desire contradicts with the Kingdom’s desire in the intervention of resolving the southern issue, in this sensitive region of the world. So, as Egypt took the role of the mediator the points that contradict both sides’ interests are determined in two things:
First, represented in their fear of Iranian exploitation in the situation of South Yemen and infiltrate to the south, after it has succeeded in infiltrating into the far northern part of Yemen.
Information confirmed a strong connection between Iran and Ali Salem Al-Beidh, who has good relations with Iran in addition to Qatar and Oman, which represent a central coalition against the Saudi-Egyptian coalition.
Second, the Egyptian keenness to find a foothold in the international agreements related to the future of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, in view that this site forms a direct impact on the national security of Egypt, which also means the same for the Kingdom.
What increases the concerns of both countries is Iran’s success in entering to the game militarily, through taking part of the international presence based on the waters of the Gulf of Aden under the flag of anti-piracy, not to mention the Houthi support in Sa’ada.
The Egyptian Al-Ahram Newspaper said last October after the tries of Egypt to mediate between Sana’a and Houthis, “As we leave the dispute, it expands between the Yemeni government and the leaders of the south; and the calls for separation have exacerbated, which made foreign parties intervene to support pro-secession. This threatens the unity of this country, which has a strategic location at the entrance of the Red Sea from the south”.
It revealed about the key steps that drive Egypt to what has been mentioned above, which is according to the Newspaper “Egypt fears foreigner intervention to support pro-secession in Yemen, in reference to Iran and Ali Salem Al- Beidh”.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia: gap points
As Egypt and KSA have unified motivations on the mentioned points, both countries have independent policies towards Yemen. As for the Kingdom, it puts Hadramout in mind because it needs an oil-passageway to the coast of the Arabian Sea via it. Also, Hadramout has an important geographical nature.
Yemen fears the Kingdom’s desire to continue its privileged relations with southern opposition leaders who belong to this province like, Haider Al-Attas and Abdul-Rahman Al-Jafri, as well as the Kingdom’s alliance with the Hadrami old capital, which has become a mainstay of the Saudi economy.
The main point that concerns Egypt stems from the crucial position between Egypt and Israel, as the internationalization of the Red Sea will make it become under the direct control of major international parties, in particular, the United States and Russia. This will be reflected directly in favor of Israel at the expense of Egypt, and Egypt has modern practical experience in this regard.

Iran: an Eye on North Yemen and an eye on Hadramout
In the direction of Iran, which embroils hot competition with the U.S. and Europe in the Gulf of Aden and Bab Al-Mandab Strait, Iran realizes the strategic importance of these sites as a passage for the global energy and an additional political card which can be used to pressure the international community. That will enable Iran to have two starting points from Yemen:
The first, is an endeavor by Iran to reach Hadramout in the Far East; Second, the point which Iran has already reached, which is the far north-west through Houthi movement, which strives to strengthen its position and Iran’s position by working in the expansion into far north areas of Yemen.

Yemeni Vice President Hadi arrives in Cairo this week to begin negotiations with Al-Attas and Ali Nasser
The statements of Yemeni officials have been conflicted about the reports that show a desire by Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to have a Egypt-Arab intervention in southern Yemen.
The Saudi Al-Madina Newspaper said that the Yemeni ambassador to Egypt, Abdul-Wali Al-Shamiri confirmed that he had not heard of such news. He added that the recent meeting between Presidents Mubarak and Saleh, included talks on a number of issues regarding the situation in Yemen in general; In addition to the discussion on the file of Somalia and the tense situation there and talks about the phenomenon of piracy in the Red Sea and finding ways to address them.
At the same time, he stressed that there are visits by Yemeni officials to Egypt for coordination between both countries.
However, the same newspaper said that another Yemeni diplomatic source said that the reports of an Arab-Egypt mediation is true and was one of the topics, which has been discussed during the meeting between Mubarak and Saleh. He pointed out that the idea of this mediation is not just the result of this meeting only, but has been offered a month ago or more.
Earlier to this news, an Egyptian source confirmed that “Minister, Suleiman is the one who will represent the Egyptian side in this mediation under orders by President Mubarak, the essence of the mediation is to explore ways and means to cool off the southern region of Yemen”, according to the Saudi Al-Madina Newspaper.
It added that Saleh has agreed with Mubarak to send his envoy, which is represented by the Vice-President, Abd Rabo Mansur Hadi, where he will meet with Suleiman to discuss the features of this mediation.
The same source said that the Yemeni envoy is due to reach Egypt this week, followed by a meeting between the Yemeni envoy and former Yemeni Prime Minister, Haidar Al-Attas and former President, Ali Nasser Mohammed.
The source pointed out that the Egyptian Foreign Ministry will take part in these negotiations as Aboul Gheit will also participate in part of the negotiations.
The negotiations are based on involving a number of opposition political figures in the south in the political life in return for a positive role by them in the success of these endeavors, added the source.